Riding the Long Tail

I didn’t set out to do things this way, it just sort of happened.  But in retrospect, it’s very interesting.   I released my mystery novel in draft form on Scibd, about 10 months ago.  In that time I have only recently started to  pay attention to the stats I have access to on Scribd.  This is what I have learned:

The novel has been viewed about 3900 times.  This number does not weed out repeat visits.  The document has been downloaded 400 times in the same 10 month period.  I factored in a 10% inflation on the views to account for repeat visits.  So we’re looking at a 9.75% download rate.

Since I have not been paying close attention, I don’t really know when this small modicum of popularity on Scribd happened.  I can tell you that most of the growth has been in the last two months.  Not sure why, I have not been mentioning the book any more lately than I did while writing it several years ago, except for talking about it in blog posts as I get closer to finishing the final version for release in paperback form.

This is not my only story on Scribd.  It is my second novel.  The first novel has been up about a year now and it has slightly less numbers than NP.  Interestingly enough, I have gotten a slight bump on the first novel, at the same time as the numbers dropped for the second novel.  Perhaps there is some merit to having a back list, even when you give things away.

The challenge that lies ahead for me will be to translate those numbers into actual book sales, once I release the novel.  That is set to happen in June or July of this year.

At this point, I predict a moderate success in the local Boise markets, but unless someone famous picks up the book and reviews it, I’ll be lucky to sell a  couple dozen copies.

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